Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Outlook

The value of the Territory’s agricultural output is expected to grow moderately over the outlook period, reflecting new investment in horticulture, and new crops coming into production.

In 2022-23, the Territory agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounted for 2.2% ($767 million) of GSP and 2.3% (3,100 people) of employment. International cattle exports declined in 2022-23 before rebounding towards the end of 2023. The sector is expected to continue to grow solidly in 2023-24. Horticultural production is expected to be weaker in 2023-24, reflecting lower mango production, predominately due to seasonal conditions. The outlook for the rest of the forecast period is relatively positive, with continued investment in new crops, and the Territory’s largest forestry plantations approaching maturity (Map 4).

Live cattle

The Territory’s live cattle exports are expected to increase in 2023-24, continuing the upward trend in the second half of 2023. Live cattle exports were up for all of the Territory’s major trading partners in 2023, rebounding from a decade low in 2022 (Chart 16).

Chart 16: Annual number of live Territory cattle overseas exports, by destination

1 Other comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Egypt, Timor-Leste and Thailand.

Source: Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade

Domestic cattle prices declined over much of 2023, before trending up from November 2023 into early 2024. The decline in prices in early 2023 reflected stronger cattle supply, and this trend continued into September, reflecting an expected El Nino weather event. With low prospective feed levels due to poor rainfall predictions, producers reduced their stock levels, which led to an oversupply of cattle on the market. However, strong rainfall in late 2023 reversed this downward trend in prices. With above-average rainfall continuing into 2024, pastoralists in the Territory are likely to rebuild their herds over the remainder of 2023-24.

Indonesia is the Territory’s largest live cattle export market, accounting for 88% (162,126 head) of cattle exports in 2023. In the second half of 2023 the number of live cattle exports to Indonesia was tracking higher than the same period in 2022. This is partly driven by the decline in domestic cattle prices, leading to producers seeking better returns in overseas markets.

Live cattle exports to Indonesia are expected to be stronger in 2024, however recent price rises may affect the Territory’s competitiveness. India is Australia’s major competitor in the Indonesian beef market, with its lower quality and cheaper priced frozen buffalo meat. This competition, along with the Indonesian Government’s policies to achieve beef self-sufficiency by 2026, continues to have an impact on Australian live cattle exports.

In other major markets of Territory live cattle, the number of head exported has increased in 2023, although volumes are still below long-term levels for each major importer.

Over the past few years, lumpy skin disease has spread through herds in South-East Asia, reaching Indonesia in early 2022, disrupting live exports. Around the same time, foot and mouth disease, another highly contagious infection, was also detected in Indonesia. Both diseases are still prevalent in South-East Asia and remain a major risk to Australian exports.

In August 2023, Indonesia suspended live cattle imports from four Australian facilities, followed by a total ban on all Australian cattle and buffalo by Malaysia, due to concerns of lumpy skin disease in Australian herds. Both bans were overturned in September 2023. Australia remains free of lumpy skin disease, demonstrated by the results of extensive testing undertaken across northern Australia.

The export of live buffalo is a small industry in the Territory with further growth potential. The relatively higher price of live cattle positions live buffalo as an alternative product for South East Asia. Indonesia is the largest export destination for Territory buffalo, accounting for 68% (4,262 head) of total buffalo exports in 2023, followed by Brunei at 18% (1,136 head) (Chart 17). In 2023, buffalo exports decreased by 38.5% to 6,237 head.

Chart 17: Annual number of live Territory buffalo overseas exports, by destination

Source: Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade

Other livestock products

According to data from the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, overseas boxed beef exports from the Territory declined, from 55 tonnes in 2022 to no production in 2023. More than 50% of the Territory’s beef cattle production is live exported, with the remaining production processed through interstate abattoirs.

Australia accounts for 62% of the global trade in saltwater crocodile skins, with most being farmed and exported by the Territory. Gross revenue from the Territory crocodile industry was $30.7 million in 2022-23 and is expected to increase in 2023-24, largely reflecting increased production capacity. In April 2024, the Territory Government released the Crocodile Farming Industry Strategic Plan 2024–2033, with the goal of maintaining sustainable industry growth and contributing to conservation, research and economic development in remote Aboriginal communities.

Map 4: Territory agriculture, forestry and fishing¹

1 This map is produced from various sources. Department of Treasury and Finance cannot guarantee the accuracy, currency, or completeness of the information.

Source: Department of Treasury and Finance; Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade

Horticulture

The outlook for horticultural production is expected to remain positive over the forecast period, with several potential developments in the outer years. Mango production accounts for a large proportion of the Territory’s horticulture sector (around half of the total value, excluding forestry) and is strongly influenced by seasonal conditions and demand in southern Australian markets. Melon farming is the second-largest horticultural activity in the Territory and is expected to increase over the outlook period.

In 2023-24, mango production has reportedly been weaker than the previous season due to warmer than expected weather affecting yields. Regardless, the outlook for the mango industry remains positive, with three new varieties of mango (named Yess!, AhHa! and Now!) being put to market in the last season. The new varieties are a product of the National Mango Breeding Program and could potentially extend the Territory’s mango season.

There are several new crops under consideration that are expected to increase the value of horticulture production over the outlook period. Up to 15,000 jackfruit trees are planted in the Territory but most are yet to produce fruit. Increased dragon fruit, passionfruit and rambutan production is also expected within the next five years following earlier Territory Government hybridisation trials.

After fertiliser production costs rose sharply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global fertiliser prices have since declined from record highs and are closer to historic average levels. In terms of labour supply, the industry will continue to face input cost and labour supply challenges for the foreseeable future. In 2022, the Commonwealth ceased the agriculture visa program and expanded the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme in its place. However, under current conditions, uptake of the program is expected to decline for the year ahead. The PALM scheme requires employers to accommodate workers for up to 9 months, leading to rotations between farms across Australia. From 1 July 2024, PALM workers must also receive 30 hours of work per week, adding more restrictions for employers in a typically volatile industry. These labour supply issues are partly offset by the return of working holiday backpackers, with holiday visa numbers returning to pre-covid levels.

Broadacre crops

Cotton production is expected to increase in the Katherine region, with around 15,000 hectares planted in 2024, up from 10,000 hectares in 2023. Production is expected to continue growing rapidly over the outlook period, with studies suggesting the value to production from the cotton industry could grow to $200 million per annum within 10 years. The Territory’s first cotton gin was opened in the Katherine region in December 2023, allowing farmers to process cotton locally rather than transport it interstate. In addition, cotton seed is a high-protein feedstock that could significantly increase the productivity of the Territory’s beef cattle herd.

Forestry

The outlook for the forestry industry is generally positive, noting the longer-term nature of the activity means the economic return takes many years to realise. There are currently 42,000 hectares of plantations in the Territory that are expected to produce an average of $100 million per annum over the next 10 years. The two main types of plantations grown in the Douglas-Daly and Katherine regions are African mahogany and Indian sandalwood. Due to different times to maturity, the African mahogany is expected to be harvested in coming years, providing a boost to the Territory’s total value of agricultural production. Production from the Indian sandalwood plantations is less certain, with Quintis being placed in receivership in early 2024.

Up to 35,000 hectares of Acacia mangium plantations on the Tiwi Islands are being harvested and sold on the international woodchip market. Production increased from 77,000 green metric tonnes (GMT) in 2021‑22 to 143,000 GMT in 2022-23, rebounding from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions in 2022. Production is expected to be steady in 2023‑24, with 109,000 GMT to be exported in the second half of 2024, in line with the level of production in the first half of 2023.

Fisheries

Successive favourable wet seasons saw wild harvest fisheries production in 2022-23 remain consistent with 2021‑22, at 6,000 tonnes. The gross value of production from wild caught product was also consistent at $60 million.

Inshore fisheries (including barramundi and mud crab) reported either increased or steady production in 2022‑23. The outlook for 2023-24 is positive due to the high level of rainfall during the 2024 wet season. Production at offshore fisheries, including Demersal, Offshore Net & Line, and Spanish Mackerel, remained steady while the Timor Reef Fishery experienced a drop in productivity, down 300 tonnes from 2021-22.

The gross value of aquaculture production grew by 25% to $82 million in 2022‑23, driven by increases in barramundi and pearling aquaculture. Barramundi production alone increased by 1,000 tonnes. The outlook for the Territory aquaculture industry is positive, with expansions of existing operations expected to enter production. The Commonwealth is currently considering laws to introduce country-of-origin labelling for seafood in the hospitality sector, which may raise consumer awareness and preferences for Australian produce.

Territory Government agribusiness development

The Territory Government is committed to growing the agribusiness industry to $2 billion by 2030. As a part of its agribusiness strategy, the Territory Government announced the NT Agribusiness Value-Add Opportunity Grant Program, which will provide $500,000 worth of funding through a competitive grants program. The goal of the program is to develop or expand the value-add capabilities of the Territory’s agribusiness sector.

There are also several projects and opportunities that focus on developing the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in the Territory. Priority projects include the Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub, Ord River Irrigation Scheme expansion into the Territory, Larrimah Agricultural Precinct, Wildman Agricultural Precinct, Gunn Point Emerging Agribusiness Development Precinct, an improved regional road network and developing infrastructure to increase export opportunities. A $15 million agribusiness facility at the Berrimah Farm Science Precinct is also due to be completed by the end of 2024, which will contain high-tech biosecurity laboratories. Under the Commonwealth’s $2 billion Water for Australia plan, up to $300.6 million will contribute towards the first stage of the Darwin Region Water Supply Infrastructure Program, which includes returning Manton Dam to service and preliminary works for the Adelaide River off-stream water storage project. Consistent with the findings of the detailed business case, investment in additional water supply will support a range of industries across the Darwin region including new agricultural development.

Land developments

In 2020, the Territory Government released expressions of interest for three large-scale agricultural land developments: the Ord River Irrigation Scheme expansion into the Territory (formerly known as the Keep Plains Agricultural Development) (total area of 67,500 hectares with up to 15,000 hectares suitable for intensive irrigated agriculture); Wildman Agricultural Precinct (26,000 hectares); and Larrimah Agricultural Precinct (5,700 hectares). Developers were successfully appointed to the Ord River Irrigation Scheme expansion and Larrimah Agricultural Precinct, with the Wildman Agricultural Precinct currently in negotiations with a developer. These three developments are set to contribute to regional growth and increased agribusiness production. A Lambells Lagoon agribusiness precinct is also under consideration, with a detailed business case to be completed by mid 2024.

The Gunn Point Emerging Agribusiness Precinct, co-funded by the National Water Grid Authority and in partnership with the Territory Government, is being established to trial the commercial viability of agricultural opportunities that could be rolled out on a broader scale. The project area is made up of two blocks over 260 hectares, allowing for multiple participants.

Another prospective region in Western Davenport is Singleton Station, which has been identified as having the potential to produce up to 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes per annum of various crops, with the project currently undertaking regulatory approvals. There has also been interest in further expanding the Douglas-Daly region, with opportunities for properties in the high rainfall zone to further develop land for intensive agriculture and horticulture production.

Collectively, these developments provide an opportunity to significantly expand the Territory’s agricultural production area and offer opportunities for new investment in a wide range of high value crops, including mangoes, bananas, melons and forestry, as well as broadacre crops such as cotton, sorghum and chia.

For the latest data on the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, refer to the Territory Economy website.