Industry outlook overview
The Northern Territory’s gross state product (GSP) by industry (sector) is concentrated in mining, and government and community services (Table 1). The largest employing industries are health care and social assistance, public administration and safety, and education and training, followed by construction, retail trade and accommodation and food services.
This publication provides an overview of the Territory’s key industries and discusses opportunities and risks to growth in these industries.
Table 1: Gross state product and employment, Territory 2023-24 (chain volume measure)
| Gross state product | Employment1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value $M | Change % | Share2 % | 10-year average | 10-year CAGR % | Number | Change % | Share % | 10-year average | |
| Government and community services | 7 547 | 3.4 | 23.9 | 6 826 | 2.2 | 60 477 | 7.2 | 43.7 | 53 756 |
| Public administration and safety | 3 253 | 3.6 | 10.2 | 3 175 | 0.6 | 21 526 | 10.6 | 15.6 | 21 198 |
| Health care and social assistance | 2 723 | 3.6 | 8.7 | 2 194 | 5.0 | 24 359 | 9.8 | 17.6 | 19 901 |
| Education and training | 1 571 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 1 457 | 1.6 | 14 592 | - 1.0 | 10.5 | 12 657 |
| Service industries | 6 381 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 5 998 | 1.9 | 44 093 | - 7.3 | 31.9 | 44 593 |
| Accommodation and food services | 735 | - 3.4 | 2.3 | 748 | 0.5 | 9 037 | - 14.3 | 6.5 | 9 396 |
| Transport, postal and warehousing | 1 338 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1 226 | 2.0 | 6 222 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6 301 |
| Information and media telecommunications | 126 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 105 | 5.3 | 1 262 | 25.1 | 0.9 | 1 319 |
| Financial and insurance services | 739 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 661 | 2.3 | 1 396 | 13.8 | 1.0 | 1 460 |
| Rental, hiring and real estate services | 430 | - 1.8 | 1.3 | 414 | 0.8 | 1 901 | - 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 041 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 911 | - 4.7 | 2.9 | 1 002 | 1.4 | 7 818 | - 6.4 | 5.6 | 7 284 |
| Administrative and support services | 628 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 532 | 0.2 | 3 710 | - 23.8 | 2.7 | 4 323 |
| Electricity, gas, water and waste services | 487 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 453 | 3.8 | 2 032 | - 21.4 | 1.5 | 2 328 |
| Arts and recreational services | 377 | - 2.1 | 1.2 | 337 | 3.9 | 4 395 | - 0.8 | 3.2 | 3 528 |
| Other services3 | 610 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 520 | 3.4 | 6 320 | - 5.3 | 4.6 | 6 614 |
| Mining and manufacturing | 11 030 | 8.8 | 27.0 | 9 809 | 3.0 | 7 361 | - 0.5 | 5.3 | 7 903 |
| Mining | 10 235 | 9.5 | 24.6 | 8 672 | 4.5 | 4 060 | - 1.3 | 2.9 | 4 413 |
| Manufacturing | 795 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1 137 | - 6.9 | 3 301 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 3 490 |
| Construction | 1 982 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 2 361 | - 5.0 | 10 727 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 12 071 |
| Retail and wholesale trade | 1 808 | - 0.4 | 5.7 | 1 785 | 0.6 | 12 843 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 12 664 |
| Retail | 930 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 871 | 0.8 | 10 565 | 0.7 | 7.6 | 10 380 |
| Wholesale trade | 878 | - 1.6 | 2.8 | 914 | 0.3 | 2 278 | 36.1 | 1.6 | 2 284 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 1 361 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 1 142 | 2.1 | 2 915 | - 5.4 | 2.1 | 2 761 |
| Total4 | 34 581 | 4.6 | 100 | 32 535 | 1.5 | 138 416 | 1.3 | 100 | 133 748 |
| Defence5 | 3 095 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 2 478 | 5.2 | 5 420 | 1.2 | 4.96 | 5 479 |
| Tourism7 | 1 215 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 837 | 4.8 | 7 973 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 6 644 |
CAGR: compound annual growth rate
1 Total economy employment data is for May 2024.
2 The industry shares are calculated using GSP in current prices.
3 Other services component of GSP include personal services and general repair and maintenance activities, however excludes units engaged in providing buildings or dwelling repair and maintenance services.
4 Includes non-industry components of GSP (ownership of dwellings, taxes less subsidies and statistical discrepancy), and therefore the industry shares may not add up to 100%. In other instances, numbers may not add due to rounding. Defence and tourism sectors are not discrete industries in Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reporting, and activities for these sectors are captured across multiple industries in ABS state accounts data. Therefore, figures in the table do not sum to ABS reported GSP and employment data due to double counting related to the separate reporting of the defence and tourism sectors in this table.
5 DTF own calculations.
6 Share of Australian Defence Force.
7 State Tourism Satellite Account numbers produced by Tourism Research Australia are in current prices only. CAGR has been calculated for a 5-year period. Share of total is calculated by Tourism Research Australia.
Source: ABS, State Accounts, Labour Force, unpublished defence data; Department of Defence Annual Reports; Tourism Research Australia State Tourism Satellite Accounts; Department of Treasury and Finance
Public and private sector investment
Territory economic activity increased by 4.6% to $34.6 billion in 2023-24 supported by public and private sector investment, and ongoing progress developing the Barossa gas field. The Territory’s domestic economy is growing solidly in 2024-25, driven by strong public investment spending and construction of the Barossa project, with state final demand expected to grow by 4%. However, GSP will contract, driven by lower exports from the Ichthys liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant due to unexpected maintenance in the second half of 2024.
In 2025-26, the Territory’s GSP is forecast to grow by 7.8%, driven by the Barossa project’s transition from construction to LNG production for export. Although private sector investment will detract from growth during this period, this impact is outweighed by higher exports. By 2026-27, the Ichthys and Darwin LNG plants are expected to be at full operational capacity, with exports continuing to fuel GSP growth. In 2027‑28, export levels are forecast to stabilise, no longer contributing to growth, while public investment is anticipated to decline from recent highs to more sustainable levels. By 2028-29, the Territory’s GSP growth is expected to revert to trend.
Government and community services sector
The government and community services sector was the largest employer in the Territory (43.7%) and contributed 23.9% to GSP in 2023-24. The sector’s relatively large contribution reflects the complexity of delivering services in across the Territory. The sector is expected to grow in the near term driven by policy commitments to support health outcomes, reduce crime and address high levels of demand for critical government services. Proposed education reforms and ongoing defence investment in the Territory are also expected to support growth.
Services sector
The services sector covers a range of discrete industries (excluding government and community services) accounting for 19.9% of the Territory’s GSP and 31.9% of employment in 2023-24. The services sector grew by 4.6% in 2023-24 with growth driven by transport, postal and warehousing, as well as administrative and support services. The outlook for the services sector is positive, supported by demand from infrastructure, construction and defence projects. Population growth is expected to underpin demand for a range of services over the outlook period, while also contributing to stronger labour supply, which is expected to ease labour shortages that the services sector has faced in the post-covid period.
Mining and manufacturing sector
The mining and manufacturing sector is a central element of the Territory economy, contributing around 27% to the Territory’s GSP and providing around 7,400 jobs in 2023‑24. The mining industry is the main driver of this industry subcomponent. Major commodities produced in the Territory include LNG, manganese, gold and bauxite. Mining output is forecast to increase over the outlook period. Production of manganese at Groote Eylandt mine is also expected to return following remediation work post Cyclone Megan. LNG production will commence from the Barossa gas field in 2025‑26 while LNG production at the Ichthys LNG plant returns to normal from 2026‑27 following significant maintenance shutdowns in 2024‑25 and 2025‑26.
The recent trade policies announced by the United States (US) administration, and reciprocal policies introduced by US trading partners, could have a material impact on export industries in Australia. Ongoing uncertainty and volatility in financial markets is weakening consumer confidence and business sentiment. If sustained, this will have implications for consumption and business investment over the outlook period.
For the Territory, direct trade with the US is small at 0.1% of Territory goods exports. The indirect effects on Australia and the Territory will be felt through Australia’s major trading partners, particularly China and Australia’s Asian neighbours, who have larger direct trading relationships with the US. Particular sectors will be more affected than others, with mining expected to see the largest impact (see Northern Territory Economy PDF (1.9 MB), chapter 2 economic growth box 2).
Construction sector
The construction sector is the fourth largest industry in the Territory, accounting for 6.4% of GSP and 7.8% of employment in 2023-24. With the Barossa project coming to an end in 2024-25, a steady pipeline of public projects is expected to support growth in the near term with significant projects like the Darwin ship lift and ongoing programs in roads and public housing.
Retail and wholesale trade sector
The contribution of the retail and wholesale trade sector to the Territory’s GSP was 5.7% in 2023‑24, which is relatively low compared to other jurisdictions, reflecting the large size of the mining, and government and community services sectors. The sectors play a crucial role in the economy as a supplier of consumer goods for the Territory’s population and of specialist equipment and materials for industries. In the near term, the growth of the sector will be supported by solid growth in household consumption, reflecting easing of cost-of-living pressures. In 2024‑25, the wholesale trade is expected to be supported by strong ongoing investment activity. From 2025‑26 wholesale trade will face weaker demand and will grow at a slower rate due to lower investment associated with the completion of the Barossa project.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector
The Territory’s agriculture, forestry and fishing sector grew by 9.9% to $1.4 billion in 2023-24, as favourable weather conditions and strong live export demand drove cattle supply. Growth is expected to continue in 2024-25 following significant investment in the cattle industry, and as producers focus on restocking their herds. The cotton industry is also expected to continue to develop, with the new cotton gin near Katherine supporting production. Over the outlook period, several major agricultural precincts are expected to progress, with an investor recently being chosen to develop the Wildman Agricultural Precinct.
Defence
Defence is a significant contributor to the Territory’s economy, supporting local businesses and employment in construction, maritime and aerospace. The Department of Treasury and Finance estimates defence consumption and investment activity in the Territory was around $3.1 billion in 2023-24 or 10.2% of GSP. This encompasses defence expenditure on employees and operating costs as well as defence capital investment activity. Information on significant defence planned investment projects over the next decade are provided in chapter 5. Following the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions and the Commonwealth Government’s focus on growing Australia’s strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific region, defence investment in the Territory is expected to increase over the outlook period.
Tourism
Tourism is an important driver of the Territory’s economy, accounting for 3.7% of Territory’s GSP and 5.1% of employment in 2023-24. The number of visitors to the Territory increased slightly, although remains below pre-covid levels. Over the forward estimates period, the outlook for tourism remains positive and is expected to continue to recover from the impacts of covid as international visitation improves.