Industry outlook overview
Summary
The Northern Territory’s gross state product (GSP) by industry (sector) is concentrated in mining, and government and community services (Table 1). The largest employing industries are health care and social assistance, public administration and safety, and education and training, followed by construction, retail trade and accommodation and food services. This publication provides an overview of the Territory’s key industries and discusses opportunities and risks to growth in these industries.
Table 1: Gross state product and employment, Territory 2024-25 (chain volume measure)
| Gross state product | Employment1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value $M | Change % | Share2 % | 10-year average | 10-year CAGR % | Number | Change % | Share % | 10-year average | |
| Government and community services | 8 122 | 1.1 | 24.7 | 7 359 | 2.2 | 66 271 | 7.6 | 46.1 | 55 610 |
| Public administration and safety | 3 253 | 1.2 | 10.5 | 3 357 | 0.8 | 22 085 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 21 233 |
| Health care and social assistance | 2 940 | 1.1 | 8.9 | 2 413 | 5.0 | 29 278 | 18.2 | 20.4 | 21 302 |
| Education and training | 1 688 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 1 589 | 1.4 | 14 908 | 0.8 | 10.4 | 13 075 |
| Service industries | 7 218 | 3.6 | 21.5 | 6 583 | 1.9 | 43 534 | - 4.1 | 30.3 | 44 722 |
| Accommodation and food services | 810 | - 2.5 | 2.4 | 861 | - 0.7 | 8 783 | - 4.9 | 6.1 | 9 509 |
| Transport, postal and warehousing | 1 467 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1 286 | 1.7 | 6 326 | - 1.3 | 4.4 | 6 300 |
| Information and media telecommunications | 143 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 113 | 5.3 | 1 254 | - 2.8 | 0.9 | 1 286 |
| Financial and insurance services | 794 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 703 | 2.2 | 992 | - 29.8 | 0.7 | 1 379 |
| Rental, hiring and real estate services | 449 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 435 | 0.7 | 1 922 | - 2.7 | 1.3 | 2 056 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 1 234 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1 108 | 4.4 | 7 159 | - 12.1 | 5.0 | 7 232 |
| Administrative and support services | 616 | - 0.6 | 1.8 | 558 | 0.8 | 4 121 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 4 317 |
| Electricity, gas, water and waste services | 625 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 575 | 1.9 | 2 945 | 41.7 | 2.0 | 2 395 |
| Arts and recreational services | 428 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 371 | 3.7 | 4 335 | - 4.0 | 3.0 | 3 644 |
| Other services3 | 652 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 574 | 2.2 | 5 697 | - 12.8 | 4.0 | 6 603 |
| Mining and manufacturing | 8 944 | - 1.2 | 24.9 | 8 870 | 0.9 | 6 708 | - 11.6 | 4.7 | 7 755 |
| Mining | 8 370 | - 1.4 | 23.2 | 7 795 | 2.3 | 3 418 | - 17.9 | 2.4 | 4 268 |
| Manufacturing | 574 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1 075 | - 9.2 | 3 290 | - 4.0 | 2.3 | 3 487 |
| Construction | 2 062 | - 2.4 | 6.2 | 2 477 | - 2.9 | 11 803 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 11 817 |
| Retail and wholesale trade | 1 865 | - 0.1 | 5.5 | 1 908 | - 0.3 | 12 070 | - 7.7 | 8.4 | 12 731 |
| Retail | 971 | - 1.4 | 2.9 | 944 | 0.2 | 10 180 | - 5.4 | 7.1 | 10 527 |
| Wholesale trade | 894 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 963 | - 0.8 | 1 890 | - 18.6 | 1.3 | 2 205 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 1 369 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1 120 | 2.4 | 3 329 | 12.9 | 2.3 | 2 954 |
| Total4 | 33 960 | 1.0 | 100.0 | 32 879 | 1.1 | 143 715 | 1.4 | 100.0 | 135 590 |
| Tourism5 | 1 215 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 837 | 4.8 | 7 973 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 6 644 |
CAGR: compound annual growth rate
1 Total economy employment data is for May 2025.
2 The industry shares are calculated using GSP in current prices.
3 Other services component of GSP include personal services and general repair and maintenance activities, however excludes units engaged in providing buildings or dwelling repair and maintenance services.
4 Includes non-industry components of GSP (ownership of dwellings, taxes less subsidies and statistical discrepancy), and therefore the industry shares may not add up to 100%. In other instances, numbers may not add due to rounding. Defence and tourism sectors are not discrete industries in Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reporting, and activities for these sectors are captured across multiple industries in ABS state accounts data. Therefore, figures in the table do not sum to ABS reported GSP and employment data due to double counting related to the separate reporting of the defence and tourism sectors in this table.
5 State Tourism Satellite Account numbers produced by Tourism Research Australia are in current prices only. CAGR has been calculated for a 5-year period. Share of total is calculated by Tourism Research Australia. Data is 2023-24.
Source: ABS, State Accounts, Labour Force, unpublished defence data; Department of Defence Annual Reports; Tourism Research Australia State Tourism Satellite Accounts; Department of Treasury and Finance
Economic outlook
The Middle East conflict is disrupting the Territory economy through higher global oil and energy prices. Brent crude oil peaked at US$144 per barrel on 7 April 2026, around 109% higher than the average of US$69 per barrel in 2025. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil flows, has driven price increases. In addition, damage to energy production infrastructure is contributing to higher oil, gas, fertiliser and plastics prices. These developments have increased input and operating costs, particularly for energy-intensive industries.
The outlook has weakened most notably for tourism, transport and logistics, mining, agriculture and construction, reflecting higher fuel cost pressures. Risks to production and costs remain fluid and dependant on the evolving peace process.
In addition, flood-related road closures in early 2026 along major freight corridors and disruptions to communities including Katherine, Daly River, Palumpa, Beswick, Jilkminggan and Darwin River are expected to temporarily affect the movement of goods and increase transport costs for some industries during 2025-26. There will be clean up and rebuilding costs post-flood that will contribute to economic activity.
Territory economic activity increased by 1% to $33.96 billion in 2024-25, supported by public and private sector investment, and the final stages of construction associated with the Barossa project.
GSP is expected to increase by 2.7% in 2025-26, driven by higher export volumes as the Barossa project transitions to the production phase, and as the Ichthys liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant returns to normal production levels following major scheduled maintenance which was completed in the first half of 2025-26. In 2026-27, the Territory’s GSP is forecast to grow by 5.8%, underpinned by both the Ichthys and Darwin LNG plants operating near full capacity, with export volumes expected to remain the primary driver of growth. In 2027-28, export levels are projected to stabilise and public investment is anticipated to moderate from recent peaks, easing to more sustainable levels. From 2028-29, the Territory’s GSP growth is expected to revert to trend growth of around 3%.
State final demand is forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2025-26, as the Barossa construction project drops out of the private investment expenditure base.
Government and community services sector
The government and community services sector contributed 24.7% to GSP in 2024-25 and accounting for 46.1% of total employment. The sector’s large share reflects the complexity and cost of delivering services across a geographically dispersed population. Growth in the sector is expected to ease in the near term, as recent policy initiatives aimed at improving health outcomes, reducing crime and addressing sustained demand for essential government services are completed. Educational reforms and ongoing defence investment in the Territory are also expected to support growth in 2025-26.
Services sector
The services sector (excluding government and community services) covers a range of discrete service delivery industries, and accounted for 21.5% of the Territory’s GSP and 30.3% of employment in 2024-25. The services sector grew by 3.6% in 2024-25, driven by transport, postal and warehousing, and professional, scientific and technical services. The services sector will face negative headwinds due to the Middle East conflict and price impacts on supply chains, however, the medium-term outlook is positive, supported by demand from infrastructure, construction and defence projects.
Mining and manufacturing sector
The mining and manufacturing sector remains the largest component of the Territory economy, contributing around 25% to the Territory’s GSP and employing about 6,700 people in 2024-25. The mining industry is the dominant subsector, with major commodities including LNG, manganese, gold and bauxite. Mining output is expected to increase over the outlook period. Production of manganese at Groote Eylandt mine has resumed following remediation work after Cyclone Megan. Production commenced from the Darwin LNG plant in 2025-26, while the Ichthys LNG plant will return to full capacity from 2026-27 following significant maintenance in 2025-26.
Mining is a fuel-intensive industry, and higher fuel prices may adversely affect the sector in the short term. Over the medium term, however, elevated energy prices are expected to support investment in the Beetaloo Sub-basin as a new source of domestic energy supply.
The manufacturing component of the sector has gradually diminished in recent years, largely due to helium production ceasing in Darwin. The Darwin LNG plant previously relied on a gas stream that contained recoverable helium, however the new Barossa gas field provides a different gas composition that does not contain commercially recoverable helium. This has removed a key manufacturing output and reduced the overall scale of the Territory’s manufacturing industry relative to earlier periods.
Construction sector
The construction sector is the fourth largest industry in the Territory in 2024-25, accounting for 6.2% of GSP and 8.2% of employment. With the Barossa project complete, the sector will be supported by a range of smaller scale works and a steady pipeline of public projects, such as the Northern Marine Complex, including the Darwin ship lift project, road upgrades and ongoing investment in public housing. However, construction activity is expected to face near-term pressures from increased fuel and transport costs, placing upward pressure on construction input prices. In addition, recent increases in the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have raised borrowing costs, which may constrain private investment and moderate construction activity in the short term.
Retail and wholesale trade
The retail and wholesale trade sector contributed 5.5% of GSP 2024-25. Its size reflects the disproportionately large contribution of the mining, and government and community services sectors to the Territory economy. The sector plays a critical role in supplying goods to households and inputs to industry. Cost-of-living pressures are expected to soften retail activity in the near term, while wholesale trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2025-26 due to a decline in investment following the completion of the Barossa project.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector grew strongly by 12.9% to $1.4 billion in 2024-25, driven by favourable seasonal conditions and robust live-export demand. Growth is expected to be weaker in 2025-26 due to seasonal impacts and global supply chain disruptions. Over the outlook period, the sector will be supported by the progress made over the past year toward the development and delivery of the Wildman, Larrimah and Sweetwater agricultural development projects as part of the Territory Government’s land releases. There has also been significant private sector investment in property purchases from last year, driving investment and growth in exports.
Defence
Defence activity remains a significant contributor to the Territory economy, supporting local businesses and employment across construction, maritime, aviation and professional services. This includes expenditure on personnel, operational activity and capital investment. With heightened geopolitical tensions and the Commonwealth’s strategic emphasis on the Indo-Pacific, defence investment in the Territory is expected to increase over the outlook period.
Tourism
Tourism continues to be an important driver of the economy, contributing 3.8% of GSP and 5.1% of employment in 2023-24. Visitor numbers increased over the year largely driven by domestic visitors. The outlook for the sector is positive for the medium term but in the near-term growth will be impacted by the Middle East conflict. Early signs for the 2026 dry season indicate cancellations increased due to fuel-related and higher flight costs. The remainder of the year is likely to be impacted by consumer concerns over cost-of-living pressures and higher fuel prices. Flooding has also led to several core natural attractions being closed, which will impact the 2026 season.