Retail and wholesale trade

Outlook

Growth in retail trade is expected to be modest in 2025-26. Activity will be supported by household spending and population growth. Retail trade is expected to decline in 2026-27 as increased interest rates and fuel costs, and uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict impact household sentiment and spending. Growth in wholesale trade is expected to be limited in 2025-26 due to lower investment activity but improve in 2026-27 as investment recovers.

In 2024-25, the Territory’s retail and wholesale trade sector contributed $1.9 billion to the economy, similar to 2023-24. However, its share of GSP fell slightly from 5.6% to 5.5%.

Retail trade

Retail trade contributed $971 million to GSP, with its share unchanged at 2.9% in 2024-25. Despite the industry’s 1.4% decline over the year, the stable share indicates overall resilience, supported by improved business conditions and increased tourism activity (Chart 12).

Chart 12: Retail trade in the Territory (annual, original, chain volume measure)

Source: ABS, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts

Retail trade growth is expected to be modest in 2025-26 as higher fuel prices and increases in interest rates weaken household spending and consumer confidence.

In late 2025, retail trade growth was supported by rising household consumption and easing cost-of-living pressures. Investment in retail infrastructure also contributed to growth, including security and layout upgrades at Casuarina Shopping Centre (featuring a new 3 storey carpark and ground level tenancies) and the Civic and State Square revitalisation.

Tourism NT’s Visitor Economy Strategy 2032 aims to unlock tourism growth, and could enhance retail trade growth and investment related to the visitor economy.

Wholesale trade

In 2024-25, wholesale trade contributed 2.6% to GSP, or $894 million, in the Territory compared to 3.9% nationally (Chart 13).

Chart 13: Wholesale trade in the Territory (annual, original, chain volume measure)

Source: ABS, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts

Wholesale trade activity in 2024-25 was driven by investments in the mining and manufacturing sector, which rely on wholesalers for materials, machinery and equipment. Ongoing infrastructure investment, including road upgrades to support freight movement, as well as industrial land releases in Berrimah North and development of the Marine Industry Park, provide opportunities for future growth.